Well, I was very, very wrong about this bounce having more power than most believe and hitting new highs on the S&P 500 before rolling over, disastrously wrong.
The market actually reversed hard from the open and ended up giving up all of its gains from the bounce and then some. My stops were triggered on many positions. Right now, my portfolio is much more balanced, with longs and shorts.
However, looking back at liquidity analysis, I continue to see a very bullish picture, and capitulation type moves like yesterday are fantastic buying opportunities within such market conditions.
I need to see some fear at the open, if I see it, I will be comfortable risking half of my profits from this year so far in my speculative positions and 10% of my conservative portfolio getting aggressively long.
The market tore higher today and my play on this bounce was rewarded quite well. I could have done better on this bounce but I bought too early, and more importantly I did not profit at all from the move lower early in the week.
However, I think this bounce has more power than many believe and I think it is a certainty that we make new all time highs on indexes such as the S& 500. Now despite this near term bullishness, I am also expecting a lower low, as I don’t think we have signs of a capitulation that would be appropriate for a sell off of this magnitude in the momentum stocks.
I think that shorting this bounce and adding on the rollover could be one of the best trades of the year.
After initially moving lower, the market moved higher. I decided to get out of some of the momentum names but rotate into some other positions. I see this bounce being a 3-5 day affair with the possibility of the S&P 500 hitting new highs. I added some more exposure via options as well.
Added back exposure pretty aggressively for a quick bounce, stops are pretty tight except for options positions. Feeling rather uneasy and would love to cut exposure on a quick bounce. Certain stocks and sectors seem to be holding up well and think I am better off focusing my energies on those rather than trying to catch “falling knives”.
I had picked up a basket of coal stocks which have done fairly well especially given the tough market conditions, unfortunately one of them filed for bankruptcy cutting the price in half. When a sector bounces, buying the worst one can be lucrative however there is always a blade swinging above your head.
It was prudent that I cut exposure, however I still took some heavy losses with the brutal down day on Friday. It totally caught me off guard, and it should not have. In fact, I should have taken advantage of it. There were puts that were up 15-20x from the open to the end of the day, and the whole time I was foolishly betting on a reversal.
I did take some pretty heavy losses trying to catch the turn, 3 times, and all 3 times I was incorrect. Now one lesson I have learned and internalized is not to dwell on the past, and I’ve learned and moved on from this mistake.
I still think the trend remains higher and will be using the weakness to buy some of the most beaten down names. The quality of this bounce will determine whether we will hit 1800 or 1900 first on the S&P 500. The severity of the selling on Friday makes me more inclined to believe that this bounce is setting up to be a fantastic shorting opportunity.
I took some profits on positions, including precious metals ETFs and miners which I feel are due for a move lower, with the jobs report being a catalyst. I also sold my calls and bought some puts and UVXY as a hedge against a poor jobs report, but all in all, I think the major trend remains higher and this is reflected in my positions.
These were the option positions I closed yesterday:
This screenshot is actually from this morning, staying long until my signals tell me otherwise.